Category: Wells

Pipelines are Canada’s only defence as U.S. seeks other sources of oil

 The success of TMX demonstrates that diversification works. But TMX alone is not enough. The pipeline is heavily committed and nearing capacity. It cannot accommodate future production growth or provide meaningful redundancy in the event of disruptions. Some have suggested that Canada should focus on building domestic refining capacity instead of pipelines. Refining has a role to play, but it does not solve the core problem. Global refining capacity already exists near end markets, and without reliable access to those markets, Canadian producers remain price takers regardless of how much value-added activity occurs at home. Relying on a single export market, or a single pipeline, creates significant economic risk. It is the equivalent of putting an entire investment portfolio into one stock. No prudent financial advisor would recommend that approach. If Canada remains overly dependent on the U.S., it risks losing leverage, facing deeper discounts and becoming increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical shifts that are occurring with growing frequency. A new West Coast pipeline should be understood as a resilience measure, not an expansionary one. Supply shocks, sanctions and political decisions can happen overnight. Infrastructure cannot. If it takes five to 10 years to permit and build new export capacity, the time to act is now. Canada cannot afford to wait for Venezuela to re-emerge or for the U.S. to find yet another alternative supplier. Another tidewater pipeline would give Canada options, strengthen price realization and ensure the energy sector is not held hostage by a single market or geopolitical assumption. Venezuela’s instability is simply the latest reminder that trade diversification is no longer optional.

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Pipelines are Canada’s only defence as U.S. seeks other sources of oil

 The success of TMX demonstrates that diversification works. But TMX alone is not enough. The pipeline is heavily committed and nearing capacity. It cannot accommodate future production growth or provide meaningful redundancy in the event of disruptions. Some have suggested that Canada should focus on building domestic refining capacity instead of pipelines. Refining has a role to play, but it does not solve the core problem. Global refining capacity already exists near end markets, and without reliable access to those markets, Canadian producers remain price takers regardless of how much value-added activity occurs at home. Relying on a single export market, or a single pipeline, creates significant economic risk. It is the equivalent of putting an entire investment portfolio into one stock. No prudent financial advisor would recommend that approach. If Canada remains overly dependent on the U.S., it risks losing leverage, facing deeper discounts and becoming increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical shifts that are occurring with growing frequency. A new West Coast pipeline should be understood as a resilience measure, not an expansionary one. Supply shocks, sanctions and political decisions can happen overnight. Infrastructure cannot. If it takes five to 10 years to permit and build new export capacity, the time to act is now. Canada cannot afford to wait for Venezuela to re-emerge or for the U.S. to find yet another alternative supplier. Another tidewater pipeline would give Canada options, strengthen price realization and ensure the energy sector is not held hostage by a single market or geopolitical assumption. Venezuela’s instability is simply the latest reminder that trade diversification is no longer optional.

Read More »