As the new year begins, BC’s snowpack levels are shaping up to be a key factor in water supply forecasts and potential flood risks. The latest Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin from the River Forecast Centre provides insights into the province’s snow conditions and what they could mean for the months ahead.

Current Snowpack Conditions

As of January 1, BC’s average snowpack sits at 87% of normal, marking a slight decline compared to historical levels. However, this is a substantial improvement over last year’s 56% of normal snowpack. While this year’s snow levels are still developing, regional variations indicate differing risks for flooding and drought.

• Above-normal snowpacks in areas like Vancouver Island (117%) and the Boundary region (115%) signal a higher potential for spring snowmelt-related flooding, especially if La Niña conditions persist.

• Below-normal snowpacks in key areas like the Nechako (62%), Central Coast (54%), and Skagit (18%) suggest early concerns for summer drought.

January typically marks the halfway point for BC’s annual snow accumulation, meaning there’s still room for significant changes based on upcoming weather patterns.

Weather Trends & La Niña Influence

The winter season so far has been shaped by a mix of regional temperature fluctuations. December 2024 was one of the warmest on record in parts of BC, with varying precipitation patterns. Some areas, like Vancouver Island and Prince George, received above-normal precipitation, while others, such as Vernon and Williams Lake, remained drier than average.

Looking ahead, the La Niña weather pattern—which brings cooler temperatures and increased precipitation—has a 59% likelihood of developing. Historically, La Niña years have led to above-normal snowpacks in BC, especially in the South Coast and Interior. If La Niña extends into spring, it could lead to delayed snowmelt and heightened flood risks.

What This Means Moving Forward

BC’s snowpack levels in the next few months will determine water availability for agriculture, hydroelectric power, and drinking water. Regions with lower snowpacks should prepare for possible drought concerns in the summer, while flood-prone areas need to monitor spring melt conditions closely.

The River Forecast Centre will release its next update in February 2025, providing a clearer picture of how BC’s snow season is shaping up. With three months left in the accumulation season, weather patterns will play a critical role in shaping BC’s water future.